Election Night Odds: Polymarket Passed 90% for Trump Nearly 7 Hours Before the AP Call

On election night 2024 Polymarket's presidential market reached the result hours before the Associated Press did. Donald Trump was 58.3% at 7 p.m. Eastern on 5 November. He crossed 90% at 10:38 p.m. and never fell back below it; the AP called the race at 5:34 a.m. on 6 November, 6 h 56 min later.

The same gap appears in every battleground state. The state markets passed 90% for the eventual winner between 1 h 58 min and 12 h 19 min before the AP called North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, and about three days before Nevada and Arizona.

The two are answering different questions. The AP calls a race when the trailing candidate can no longer catch up. A market price is a chance, and 90% is wrong one time in ten. Prices are Polymarket's minute Yes prices from its public price history.

The table gives Trump's price in each market at 7 p.m. Eastern, its lowest point between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m., the minute it crossed 90% and stayed there, and the AP call. All times are Eastern on the night of 5 to 6 November 2024 unless stated.

Michigan moved furthest. Trump was the underdog there: 38.5% at 7 p.m., with a low of 37.5% at 7:24 p.m. Eastern. Between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m. his price went from 58.0% to 92.0%, and the AP call came at 12:54 p.m. the next afternoon.

Download table figures:CSVJSON with sources

The presidential price barely moved in the first hour. It was 61.1% at 6 p.m., touched 56.9% at 6:43 p.m. and was 70.2% at 8 p.m. It rose to 82.7% at 10 p.m. and 93.1% at 11 p.m., while counts came in from Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

By the time the AP called North Carolina at 11:18 p.m., the presidential market was already above 90%. When the AP called Pennsylvania at 2:24 a.m., Trump was 99.5%, and at the 5:34 a.m. call 99.6%. The state calls confirmed a move the price had made earlier.

Download chart figures:CSVJSON with sources

The popular vote market turned as well. Trump was 28.1% to win the national vote at 7 p.m. and 80.8% at 11 p.m.; he crossed 90% at 12:39 a.m. and won the popular vote.

Senate control was the earliest call in the markets. A Republican Senate was 82.5% at 7 p.m. and crossed 90% for good at 8:39 p.m. Eastern. The House was the slow one: a Republican House was 50.0% at 7 p.m. rose to 79.0% at 11 p.m. and fell back to 60.5% at midnight. It crossed 90% for good only on the evening of 6 November and 99% on 11 November. AP race calls gave Republicans a House majority in the week after the vote.

The midterms on 3 November 2026 have no presidential race, so the night turns on House and Senate control, where 2024 showed the market and the count moving at different speeds. House control in a close year can take a week of counting; in 2024 the market spent five days between 90% and 99%.

Vultax froze 13,186 Polymarket midterm contracts before the vote for its midterm scorecard, which will score them against the results. How Polymarket and Kalshi price the same races is in our comparison of their midterm odds.

• Watch the price, not the first count. Early votes in many states are counted in a different order from election-day votes, and prices moved before the count settled.
• Read 90% as one in ten. A price above 90% was right in every 2024 battleground; one night is not a rate.
• A race call is a different standard. The AP waits until the trailing candidate cannot catch up; the market prices the chance before that.

Prices are Polymarket's Yes prices for Trump from its public minute price history, from 12:00 UTC on 5 November to 12:00 UTC on 7 November 2024, and to the AP calls for Arizona and Nevada. A crossing time is the first minute after which the price did not fall below the level again before the AP call. All times are Eastern Standard Time, UTC minus 5.

AP call times are those the AP published: North Carolina 11:18 p.m. on 5 November; Georgia 12:58 a.m., Pennsylvania 2:24 a.m., Wisconsin and the presidency 5:34 a.m., Michigan 12:54 p.m. on 6 November; Nevada early on 9 November; Arizona 9:21 p.m. on 9 November.

One election night is one case. The markets were right in every battleground in 2024 and could be wrong in another year. This page reads public prices; it is not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.