Press note
2028 Election Odds: Vance 20%, Democrats 64.5%, and Three Democrats Within Two Points
77.9%Ocasio-Cortez's implied chance if nominated
Her 12.9% to win the presidency divided by her 16.6% to win the nomination; the Democratic party price is 64.5%
JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9% and Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are within two points of each other for the nomination, and the three markets do not add up. The prices were read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026, eight days before the midterm elections. Newsom was 39.5% in November 2025. On the Republican side Vance is 37.6% for the nomination, down from 59.5%. A candidate's price to win the presidency divided by the price to win the nomination is the chance the market gives that candidate after a nomination. For Ocasio-Cortez that comes to 77.9%, well above the Democratic party's 64.5%. The table sets each name's price in the winner market beside the price in that party's nomination market.
Observed 2026-10-26T20:00Z, population: Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner 2028, Democratic and Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 markets.
Supporting figures
- 19.9% — JD Vance, 2028 winner pricePolymarket, 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026. 31.5% at its peak on 17 December 2025
- 64.5% — Democrats to win the White HousePolymarket's party market, against 52.5% on 1 January 2026
- 1.9 pts — Gap between the top three DemocratsOcasio-Cortez 16.6%, Newsom 15.5%, Ossoff 14.7% for the nomination
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- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the 2028 election odds room
- Live Polymarket prices for the 2028 winner, both nominations and the vice-presidential picks, the markets this study reads.
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Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Vultax Research, 2028 Election Odds: Vance 20%, Democrats 64.5%, and Three Democrats Within Two Points, 2026-10-27, https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket
Published 2026-10-27. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version, Use our data