2028 Election Odds: Vance 20%, Democrats 64.5%, and Three Democrats Within Two Points

JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9% and Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are within two points of each other for the nomination, and the three markets do not add up.

By Vultax Research8 min readMethodologyRead as Markdown

AI-assisted drafting, research and editing. Published by OmniOS OÜ. How we use AI

The north front of the White House with its fountain, lawn and red flower beds under a clear sky
The north front of the White House in Washington, July 2007. Photo: Nishkid64 / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Ocasio-Cortez's implied chance if nominated

77.9%

Her 12.9% to win the presidency divided by her 16.6% to win the nomination; the Democratic party price is 64.5%

JD Vance, 2028 winner price
19.9%
Polymarket, 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026. 31.5% at its peak on 17 December 2025
Democrats to win the White House
64.5%
Polymarket's party market, against 52.5% on 1 January 2026
Gap between the top three Democrats
1.9 pts
Ocasio-Cortez 16.6%, Newsom 15.5%, Ossoff 14.7% for the nomination
2028 presidential winner price, five names21 Jul → 26 Oct
Live in VultaxOpen the 2028 election odds roomLive Polymarket prices for the 2028 winner, both nominations and the vice-presidential picks, the markets this study reads.

The short answer

JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9%, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12.9% and Gavin Newsom at 11.5%. Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House and Republicans 34.5%. The prices were read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026, eight days before the midterm elections.

The Democratic nomination is a three-way race: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16.6%, Gavin Newsom 15.5% and Jon Ossoff 14.7%. Newsom was 39.5% in November 2025. On the Republican side Vance is 37.6% for the nomination, down from 59.5%.

The three markets do not add up. A candidate's price to win the presidency divided by the price to win the nomination is the chance the market gives that candidate after a nomination. For Ocasio-Cortez that comes to 77.9%, well above the Democratic party's 64.5%. This page reads public prices; it is not a forecast.

2028 presidential election odds on Polymarket

The table sets each name's price in the winner market beside the price in that party's nomination market. The last column divides the first by the second: the chance to win in November 2028 if nominated, as the two markets price it.

Read across the rows, the market expects Vance to win 52.8% of the time if he is the Republican nominee, against 34.5% for Republicans in general. It expects Newsom to win 74.4% of the time as the Democratic nominee and Ossoff 63.8%, against 64.5% for Democrats in general.

Polymarket Yes prices at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026: each market's last minute price at or before that time. The last column is the first price divided by the second. Live prices are in the 2028 election odds room.
CandidatePartyWin the presidencyWin the nominationImplied if nominated
JD VanceRepublican19.9%37.6%52.8%
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDemocratic12.9%16.6%77.9%
Gavin NewsomDemocratic11.5%15.5%74.4%
Jon OssoffDemocratic9.4%14.7%63.8%
Marco RubioRepublican9.3%18.1%51.2%
Kamala HarrisDemocratic3.9%6.4%60.6%
Josh ShapiroDemocratic3.0%5.0%59.0%
Pete ButtigiegDemocratic2.5%5.1%49.5%

Download table figures:CSVJSON with sources

How the 2028 lead has moved since July 2025

The winner market opened in July 2025. Vance has led it on 454 of its 463 days, peaking at 31.5% on 17 December 2025; he was 30.5% on 1 January 2026 and is 19.9% now. Marco Rubio led for 7 days and Newsom for 2, all in the spring and early summer of 2026.

Ossoff's line is the steepest. He was not listed in the winner market until February 2026 and is now fourth at 9.4%.

2028 presidential winner price, five names

Polymarket, Monday readings, 21 July 2025 to 26 October 2026. Percent.

  • JD Vance
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
  • Jon Ossoff
  • Gavin Newsom
  • Marco Rubio
2028 presidential winner price, five names. JD Vance: 21 Jul 27%, 28 Jul 28%, 4 Aug 28%, 11 Aug 27%, 18 Aug 28%, 25 Aug 27%, 1 Sep 28%, 8 Sep 28%, 15 Sep 27%, 22 Sep 27%, 29 Sep 28%, 6 Oct 29%, 13 Oct 28%, 20 Oct 29%, 27 Oct 29%, 3 Nov 29%, 10 Nov 29%, 17 Nov 29%, 24 Nov 29%, 1 Dec 29%, 8 Dec 30%, 15 Dec 30%, 22 Dec 32%, 29 Dec 31%, 5 Jan 2026 31%, 12 Jan 28%, 19 Jan 26%, 26 Jan 27%, 2 Feb 26%, 9 Feb 25%, 16 Feb 24%, 23 Feb 23%, 2 Mar 21%, 9 Mar 21%, 16 Mar 21%, 23 Mar 20%, 30 Mar 18%, 6 Apr 18%, 13 Apr 19%, 20 Apr 19%, 27 Apr 19%, 4 May 21%, 11 May 19%, 18 May 19%, 25 May 19%, 1 Jun 18%, 8 Jun 16%, 15 Jun 15%, 22 Jun 21%, 29 Jun 19%, 6 Jul 20%, 13 Jul 20%, 20 Jul 20%, 27 Jul 20%, 3 Aug 21%, 10 Aug 22%, 17 Aug 23%, 24 Aug 23%, 31 Aug 25%, 7 Sep 25%, 14 Sep 24%, 21 Sep 21%, 28 Sep 21%, 5 Oct 20%, 12 Oct 20%, 19 Oct 21%, 26 Oct 20%. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 21 Jul 9.5%, 28 Jul 11%, 4 Aug 8.5%, 11 Aug 8.5%, 18 Aug 8.5%, 25 Aug 8.5%, 1 Sep 7.5%, 8 Sep 6.5%, 15 Sep 4.5%, 22 Sep 6.5%, 29 Sep 6.5%, 6 Oct 6.5%, 13 Oct 6.5%, 20 Oct 6%, 27 Oct 7.5%, 3 Nov 8.5%, 10 Nov 8.5%, 17 Nov 8.5%, 24 Nov 8.5%, 1 Dec 8.5%, 8 Dec 7.5%, 15 Dec 7.5%, 22 Dec 7.5%, 29 Dec 7.5%, 5 Jan 2026 7.5%, 12 Jan 7.5%, 19 Jan 6.5%, 26 Jan 6.5%, 2 Feb 5.5%, 9 Feb 4.5%, 16 Feb 5.2%, 23 Feb 5.8%, 2 Mar 6.5%, 9 Mar 5.9%, 16 Mar 4.8%, 23 Mar 4.8%, 30 Mar 5.6%, 6 Apr 6%, 13 Apr 5.6%, 20 Apr 7.7%, 27 Apr 6.3%, 4 May 5.7%, 11 May 5.4%, 18 May 5.3%, 25 May 5.2%, 1 Jun 5.3%, 8 Jun 4.7%, 15 Jun 5.7%, 22 Jun 5.5%, 29 Jun 5.2%, 6 Jul 7.2%, 13 Jul 7.5%, 20 Jul 8%, 27 Jul 8.4%, 3 Aug 9.5%, 10 Aug 9.6%, 17 Aug 13%, 24 Aug 14%, 31 Aug 11%, 7 Sep 13%, 14 Sep 13%, 21 Sep 13%, 28 Sep 13%, 5 Oct 14%, 12 Oct 13%, 19 Oct 13%, 26 Oct 13%. Jon Ossoff: 21 Jul 0%, 28 Jul 0%, 4 Aug 0%, 11 Aug 0%, 18 Aug 0%, 25 Aug 0%, 1 Sep 0%, 8 Sep 0%, 15 Sep 0%, 22 Sep 0%, 29 Sep 0%, 6 Oct 0%, 13 Oct 0%, 20 Oct 0%, 27 Oct 0%, 3 Nov 0%, 10 Nov 0%, 17 Nov 0%, 24 Nov 0%, 1 Dec 0%, 8 Dec 0%, 15 Dec 0%, 22 Dec 0%, 29 Dec 0%, 5 Jan 2026 0%, 12 Jan 0%, 19 Jan 0%, 26 Jan 0%, 2 Feb 0%, 9 Feb 0%, 16 Feb 1.7%, 23 Feb 2%, 2 Mar 1.7%, 9 Mar 2.4%, 16 Mar 2.5%, 23 Mar 3.1%, 30 Mar 3.5%, 6 Apr 3.5%, 13 Apr 4.4%, 20 Apr 3.8%, 27 Apr 3.9%, 4 May 4.6%, 11 May 3.9%, 18 May 3.6%, 25 May 3.4%, 1 Jun 3.2%, 8 Jun 4.1%, 15 Jun 4.4%, 22 Jun 6%, 29 Jun 5.8%, 6 Jul 7%, 13 Jul 7.1%, 20 Jul 7.7%, 27 Jul 8.8%, 3 Aug 9.4%, 10 Aug 9.6%, 17 Aug 9.3%, 24 Aug 9.8%, 31 Aug 12%, 7 Sep 12%, 14 Sep 12%, 21 Sep 12%, 28 Sep 12%, 5 Oct 11%, 12 Oct 10%, 19 Oct 11%, 26 Oct 9.5%. Gavin Newsom: 21 Jul 14%, 28 Jul 14%, 4 Aug 14%, 11 Aug 13%, 18 Aug 15%, 25 Aug 19%, 1 Sep 19%, 8 Sep 23%, 15 Sep 22%, 22 Sep 21%, 29 Sep 22%, 6 Oct 22%, 13 Oct 23%, 20 Oct 23%, 27 Oct 22%, 3 Nov 21%, 10 Nov 20%, 17 Nov 19%, 24 Nov 19%, 1 Dec 18%, 8 Dec 18%, 15 Dec 18%, 22 Dec 18%, 29 Dec 17%, 5 Jan 2026 18%, 12 Jan 20%, 19 Jan 19%, 26 Jan 20%, 2 Feb 20%, 9 Feb 19%, 16 Feb 17%, 23 Feb 18%, 2 Mar 18%, 9 Mar 19%, 16 Mar 17%, 23 Mar 18%, 30 Mar 17%, 6 Apr 17%, 13 Apr 16%, 20 Apr 16%, 27 Apr 18%, 4 May 17%, 11 May 17%, 18 May 17%, 25 May 16%, 1 Jun 16%, 8 Jun 14%, 15 Jun 14%, 22 Jun 16%, 29 Jun 12%, 6 Jul 12%, 13 Jul 12%, 20 Jul 12%, 27 Jul 13%, 3 Aug 12%, 10 Aug 9.9%, 17 Aug 8.8%, 24 Aug 8.2%, 31 Aug 8.2%, 7 Sep 7.6%, 14 Sep 8.1%, 21 Sep 8.2%, 28 Sep 7.6%, 5 Oct 7.9%, 12 Oct 9.1%, 19 Oct 9%, 26 Oct 9.5%. Marco Rubio: 21 Jul 5.5%, 28 Jul 4.5%, 4 Aug 5.5%, 11 Aug 5.5%, 18 Aug 5.5%, 25 Aug 4.5%, 1 Sep 4.5%, 8 Sep 4.5%, 15 Sep 4.5%, 22 Sep 4.5%, 29 Sep 4.5%, 6 Oct 4.5%, 13 Oct 3.2%, 20 Oct 2.7%, 27 Oct 2.7%, 3 Nov 4.7%, 10 Nov 3.7%, 17 Nov 3.4%, 24 Nov 3.5%, 1 Dec 3.7%, 8 Dec 3.8%, 15 Dec 3.9%, 22 Dec 4%, 29 Dec 4%, 5 Jan 2026 7.4%, 12 Jan 9.4%, 19 Jan 9.5%, 26 Jan 9.2%, 2 Feb 8.3%, 9 Feb 7.6%, 16 Feb 8%, 23 Feb 7.3%, 2 Mar 8.1%, 9 Mar 9.8%, 16 Mar 15%, 23 Mar 12%, 30 Mar 10%, 6 Apr 10%, 13 Apr 9.4%, 20 Apr 12%, 27 Apr 11%, 4 May 10%, 11 May 15%, 18 May 14%, 25 May 13%, 1 Jun 14%, 8 Jun 16%, 15 Jun 16%, 22 Jun 16%, 29 Jun 14%, 6 Jul 16%, 13 Jul 14%, 20 Jul 14%, 27 Jul 13%, 3 Aug 13%, 10 Aug 13%, 17 Aug 13%, 24 Aug 11%, 31 Aug 10%, 7 Sep 9.1%, 14 Sep 11%, 21 Sep 8.9%, 28 Sep 8.8%, 5 Oct 9.1%, 12 Oct 7.9%, 19 Oct 7.9%, 26 Oct 9.1%0%10%20%30%40%21 Jul, JD Vance: 27%28 Jul, JD Vance: 28%4 Aug, JD Vance: 28%11 Aug, JD Vance: 27%18 Aug, JD Vance: 28%25 Aug, JD Vance: 27%1 Sep, JD Vance: 28%8 Sep, JD Vance: 28%15 Sep, JD Vance: 27%22 Sep, JD Vance: 27%29 Sep, JD Vance: 28%6 Oct, JD Vance: 29%13 Oct, JD Vance: 28%20 Oct, JD Vance: 29%27 Oct, JD Vance: 29%3 Nov, JD Vance: 29%10 Nov, JD Vance: 29%17 Nov, JD Vance: 29%24 Nov, JD Vance: 29%1 Dec, JD Vance: 29%8 Dec, JD Vance: 30%15 Dec, JD Vance: 30%22 Dec, JD Vance: 32%29 Dec, JD Vance: 31%5 Jan 2026, JD Vance: 31%12 Jan, JD Vance: 28%19 Jan, JD Vance: 26%26 Jan, JD Vance: 27%2 Feb, JD Vance: 26%9 Feb, JD Vance: 25%16 Feb, JD Vance: 24%23 Feb, JD Vance: 23%2 Mar, JD Vance: 21%9 Mar, JD Vance: 21%16 Mar, JD Vance: 21%23 Mar, JD Vance: 20%30 Mar, JD Vance: 18%6 Apr, JD Vance: 18%13 Apr, JD Vance: 19%20 Apr, JD Vance: 19%27 Apr, JD Vance: 19%4 May, JD Vance: 21%11 May, JD Vance: 19%18 May, JD Vance: 19%25 May, JD Vance: 19%1 Jun, JD Vance: 18%8 Jun, JD Vance: 16%15 Jun, JD Vance: 15%22 Jun, JD Vance: 21%29 Jun, JD Vance: 19%6 Jul, JD Vance: 20%13 Jul, JD Vance: 20%20 Jul, JD Vance: 20%27 Jul, JD Vance: 20%3 Aug, JD Vance: 21%10 Aug, JD Vance: 22%17 Aug, JD Vance: 23%24 Aug, JD Vance: 23%31 Aug, JD Vance: 25%7 Sep, JD Vance: 25%14 Sep, JD Vance: 24%21 Sep, JD Vance: 21%28 Sep, JD Vance: 21%5 Oct, JD Vance: 20%12 Oct, JD Vance: 20%19 Oct, JD Vance: 21%26 Oct, JD Vance: 20%32%21 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.5%28 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%4 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%11 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%18 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%25 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%1 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.5%8 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6.5%15 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 4.5%22 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6.5%29 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6.5%6 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6.5%13 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6.5%20 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6%27 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.5%3 Nov, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%10 Nov, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%17 Nov, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%24 Nov, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%1 Dec, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%8 Dec, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.5%15 Dec, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.5%22 Dec, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.5%29 Dec, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.5%5 Jan 2026, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.5%12 Jan, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.5%19 Jan, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6.5%26 Jan, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6.5%2 Feb, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.5%9 Feb, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 4.5%16 Feb, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.2%23 Feb, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.8%2 Mar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6.5%9 Mar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.9%16 Mar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 4.8%23 Mar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 4.8%30 Mar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.6%6 Apr, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6%13 Apr, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.6%20 Apr, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.7%27 Apr, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6.3%4 May, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.7%11 May, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.4%18 May, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.3%25 May, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.2%1 Jun, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.3%8 Jun, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 4.7%15 Jun, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.7%22 Jun, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.5%29 Jun, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.2%6 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.2%13 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.5%20 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8%27 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.4%3 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.5%10 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.6%17 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%24 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 14%31 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%7 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%14 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%21 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%28 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%5 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 14%12 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%19 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%26 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%21 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 0%28 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 0%4 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 0%11 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 0%18 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 0%25 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 0%1 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 0%8 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 0%15 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 0%22 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 0%29 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 0%6 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 0%13 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 0%20 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 0%27 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 0%3 Nov, Jon Ossoff: 0%10 Nov, Jon Ossoff: 0%17 Nov, Jon Ossoff: 0%24 Nov, Jon Ossoff: 0%1 Dec, Jon Ossoff: 0%8 Dec, Jon Ossoff: 0%15 Dec, Jon Ossoff: 0%22 Dec, Jon Ossoff: 0%29 Dec, Jon Ossoff: 0%5 Jan 2026, Jon Ossoff: 0%12 Jan, Jon Ossoff: 0%19 Jan, Jon Ossoff: 0%26 Jan, Jon Ossoff: 0%2 Feb, Jon Ossoff: 0%9 Feb, Jon Ossoff: 0%16 Feb, Jon Ossoff: 1.7%23 Feb, Jon Ossoff: 2%2 Mar, Jon Ossoff: 1.7%9 Mar, Jon Ossoff: 2.4%16 Mar, Jon Ossoff: 2.5%23 Mar, Jon Ossoff: 3.1%30 Mar, Jon Ossoff: 3.5%6 Apr, Jon Ossoff: 3.5%13 Apr, Jon Ossoff: 4.4%20 Apr, Jon Ossoff: 3.8%27 Apr, Jon Ossoff: 3.9%4 May, Jon Ossoff: 4.6%11 May, Jon Ossoff: 3.9%18 May, Jon Ossoff: 3.6%25 May, Jon Ossoff: 3.4%1 Jun, Jon Ossoff: 3.2%8 Jun, Jon Ossoff: 4.1%15 Jun, Jon Ossoff: 4.4%22 Jun, Jon Ossoff: 6%29 Jun, Jon Ossoff: 5.8%6 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 7%13 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 7.1%20 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 7.7%27 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 8.8%3 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 9.4%10 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 9.6%17 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 9.3%24 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 9.8%31 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 12%7 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 12%14 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 12%21 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 12%28 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 12%5 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 11%12 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 10%19 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 11%26 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 9.5%21 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 14%28 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 14%4 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 14%11 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 13%18 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 15%25 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 19%1 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 19%8 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 23%15 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 22%22 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 21%29 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 22%6 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 22%13 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 23%20 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 23%27 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 22%3 Nov, Gavin Newsom: 21%10 Nov, Gavin Newsom: 20%17 Nov, Gavin Newsom: 19%24 Nov, Gavin Newsom: 19%1 Dec, Gavin Newsom: 18%8 Dec, Gavin Newsom: 18%15 Dec, Gavin Newsom: 18%22 Dec, Gavin Newsom: 18%29 Dec, Gavin Newsom: 17%5 Jan 2026, Gavin Newsom: 18%12 Jan, Gavin Newsom: 20%19 Jan, Gavin Newsom: 19%26 Jan, Gavin Newsom: 20%2 Feb, Gavin Newsom: 20%9 Feb, Gavin Newsom: 19%16 Feb, Gavin Newsom: 17%23 Feb, Gavin Newsom: 18%2 Mar, Gavin Newsom: 18%9 Mar, Gavin Newsom: 19%16 Mar, Gavin Newsom: 17%23 Mar, Gavin Newsom: 18%30 Mar, Gavin Newsom: 17%6 Apr, Gavin Newsom: 17%13 Apr, Gavin Newsom: 16%20 Apr, Gavin Newsom: 16%27 Apr, Gavin Newsom: 18%4 May, Gavin Newsom: 17%11 May, Gavin Newsom: 17%18 May, Gavin Newsom: 17%25 May, Gavin Newsom: 16%1 Jun, Gavin Newsom: 16%8 Jun, Gavin Newsom: 14%15 Jun, Gavin Newsom: 14%22 Jun, Gavin Newsom: 16%29 Jun, Gavin Newsom: 12%6 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 12%13 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 12%20 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 12%27 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 13%3 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 12%10 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 9.9%17 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 8.8%24 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 8.2%31 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 8.2%7 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 7.6%14 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 8.1%21 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 8.2%28 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 7.6%5 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 7.9%12 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 9.1%19 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 9%26 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 9.5%21 Jul, Marco Rubio: 5.5%28 Jul, Marco Rubio: 4.5%4 Aug, Marco Rubio: 5.5%11 Aug, Marco Rubio: 5.5%18 Aug, Marco Rubio: 5.5%25 Aug, Marco Rubio: 4.5%1 Sep, Marco Rubio: 4.5%8 Sep, Marco Rubio: 4.5%15 Sep, Marco Rubio: 4.5%22 Sep, Marco Rubio: 4.5%29 Sep, Marco Rubio: 4.5%6 Oct, Marco Rubio: 4.5%13 Oct, Marco Rubio: 3.2%20 Oct, Marco Rubio: 2.7%27 Oct, Marco Rubio: 2.7%3 Nov, Marco Rubio: 4.7%10 Nov, Marco Rubio: 3.7%17 Nov, Marco Rubio: 3.4%24 Nov, Marco Rubio: 3.5%1 Dec, Marco Rubio: 3.7%8 Dec, Marco Rubio: 3.8%15 Dec, Marco Rubio: 3.9%22 Dec, Marco Rubio: 4%29 Dec, Marco Rubio: 4%5 Jan 2026, Marco Rubio: 7.4%12 Jan, Marco Rubio: 9.4%19 Jan, Marco Rubio: 9.5%26 Jan, Marco Rubio: 9.2%2 Feb, Marco Rubio: 8.3%9 Feb, Marco Rubio: 7.6%16 Feb, Marco Rubio: 8%23 Feb, Marco Rubio: 7.3%2 Mar, Marco Rubio: 8.1%9 Mar, Marco Rubio: 9.8%16 Mar, Marco Rubio: 15%23 Mar, Marco Rubio: 12%30 Mar, Marco Rubio: 10%6 Apr, Marco Rubio: 10%13 Apr, Marco Rubio: 9.4%20 Apr, Marco Rubio: 12%27 Apr, Marco Rubio: 11%4 May, Marco Rubio: 10%11 May, Marco Rubio: 15%18 May, Marco Rubio: 14%25 May, Marco Rubio: 13%1 Jun, Marco Rubio: 14%8 Jun, Marco Rubio: 16%15 Jun, Marco Rubio: 16%22 Jun, Marco Rubio: 16%29 Jun, Marco Rubio: 14%6 Jul, Marco Rubio: 16%13 Jul, Marco Rubio: 14%20 Jul, Marco Rubio: 14%27 Jul, Marco Rubio: 13%3 Aug, Marco Rubio: 13%10 Aug, Marco Rubio: 13%17 Aug, Marco Rubio: 13%24 Aug, Marco Rubio: 11%31 Aug, Marco Rubio: 10%7 Sep, Marco Rubio: 9.1%14 Sep, Marco Rubio: 11%21 Sep, Marco Rubio: 8.9%28 Sep, Marco Rubio: 8.8%5 Oct, Marco Rubio: 9.1%12 Oct, Marco Rubio: 7.9%19 Oct, Marco Rubio: 7.9%26 Oct, Marco Rubio: 9.1%21 Jul15 Sep10 Nov5 Jan 20262 Mar27 Apr22 Jun17 Aug12 Oct

A name with no listed market yet reads zero; Ossoff joined the winner market in February 2026.

Chart: Vultax Research

Show the numbers
2028 presidential winner price, five names. Polymarket, Monday readings, 21 July 2025 to 26 October 2026. Percent. Values in %.
PointJD VanceAlexandria Ocasio-CortezJon OssoffGavin NewsomMarco Rubio
21 Jul27%9.5%0%14%5.5%
28 Jul28%11%0%14%4.5%
4 Aug28%8.5%0%14%5.5%
11 Aug27%8.5%0%13%5.5%
18 Aug28%8.5%0%15%5.5%
25 Aug27%8.5%0%19%4.5%
1 Sep28%7.5%0%19%4.5%
8 Sep28%6.5%0%23%4.5%
15 Sep27%4.5%0%22%4.5%
22 Sep27%6.5%0%21%4.5%
29 Sep28%6.5%0%22%4.5%
6 Oct29%6.5%0%22%4.5%
13 Oct28%6.5%0%23%3.2%
20 Oct29%6%0%23%2.7%
27 Oct29%7.5%0%22%2.7%
3 Nov29%8.5%0%21%4.7%
10 Nov29%8.5%0%20%3.7%
17 Nov29%8.5%0%19%3.4%
24 Nov29%8.5%0%19%3.5%
1 Dec29%8.5%0%18%3.7%
8 Dec30%7.5%0%18%3.8%
15 Dec30%7.5%0%18%3.9%
22 Dec32%7.5%0%18%4%
29 Dec31%7.5%0%17%4%
5 Jan 202631%7.5%0%18%7.4%
12 Jan28%7.5%0%20%9.4%
19 Jan26%6.5%0%19%9.5%
26 Jan27%6.5%0%20%9.2%
2 Feb26%5.5%0%20%8.3%
9 Feb25%4.5%0%19%7.6%
16 Feb24%5.2%1.7%17%8%
23 Feb23%5.8%2%18%7.3%
2 Mar21%6.5%1.7%18%8.1%
9 Mar21%5.9%2.4%19%9.8%
16 Mar21%4.8%2.5%17%15%
23 Mar20%4.8%3.1%18%12%
30 Mar18%5.6%3.5%17%10%
6 Apr18%6%3.5%17%10%
13 Apr19%5.6%4.4%16%9.4%
20 Apr19%7.7%3.8%16%12%
27 Apr19%6.3%3.9%18%11%
4 May21%5.7%4.6%17%10%
11 May19%5.4%3.9%17%15%
18 May19%5.3%3.6%17%14%
25 May19%5.2%3.4%16%13%
1 Jun18%5.3%3.2%16%14%
8 Jun16%4.7%4.1%14%16%
15 Jun15%5.7%4.4%14%16%
22 Jun21%5.5%6%16%16%
29 Jun19%5.2%5.8%12%14%
6 Jul20%7.2%7%12%16%
13 Jul20%7.5%7.1%12%14%
20 Jul20%8%7.7%12%14%
27 Jul20%8.4%8.8%13%13%
3 Aug21%9.5%9.4%12%13%
10 Aug22%9.6%9.6%9.9%13%
17 Aug23%13%9.3%8.8%13%
24 Aug23%14%9.8%8.2%11%
31 Aug25%11%12%8.2%10%
7 Sep25%13%12%7.6%9.1%
14 Sep24%13%12%8.1%11%
21 Sep21%13%12%8.2%8.9%
28 Sep21%13%12%7.6%8.8%
5 Oct20%14%11%7.9%9.1%
12 Oct20%13%10%9.1%7.9%
19 Oct21%13%11%9%7.9%
26 Oct20%13%9.5%9.5%9.1%

Download chart figures:CSVJSON with sources

The three markets do not add up

If the markets agreed, a nominee's chance to win would sit near the party's price, give or take what the market thinks of that person. Vance's 52.8% is 18.3 points above the Republican price. Ocasio-Cortez's 77.9% is 13.4 points above the Democratic price, which would make her a stronger nominee than any other Democrat.

There are two ways to read the gap. The market may think Ocasio-Cortez would be a stronger nominee than any other Democrat. Or the winner and nomination markets, which have different traders and settle two years from now, are out of line with each other for some names. The winner market is not priced high across the board: the Yes prices of all 128 names in it add up to 93.1% on 26 October. Read the implied column as a map of where the markets disagree, not as a ranking of candidates.

Party price and implied chance if nominated

Polymarket, 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026. Percent.

  • Party's price
  • Implied if nominated
Party price and implied chance if nominated. Party's price: Vance 35%, Ocasio-Cortez 65%, Newsom 65%, Ossoff 65%, Rubio 35%. Implied if nominated: Vance 53%, Ocasio-Cortez 78%, Newsom 74%, Ossoff 64%, Rubio 51%0%20%40%60%80%Vance, Party's price: 35%Vance, Implied if nominated: 53%Ocasio-Cortez, Party's price: 65%65%Ocasio-Cortez, Implied if nominated: 78%78%Newsom, Party's price: 65%65%Newsom, Implied if nominated: 74%Ossoff, Party's price: 65%65%Ossoff, Implied if nominated: 64%Rubio, Party's price: 35%Rubio, Implied if nominated: 51%VanceOcasio-CortezNewsomOssoffRubio

Implied if nominated is the winner price divided by the nomination price, from the table above.

Chart: Vultax Research

Show the numbers
Party price and implied chance if nominated. Polymarket, 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026. Percent. Values in %.
CategoryParty's priceImplied if nominated
Vance35%53%
Ocasio-Cortez65%78%
Newsom65%74%
Ossoff65%64%
Rubio35%51%

Download chart figures:CSVJSON with sources

The Democratic nomination: from Newsom to a three-way race

Newsom led the Democratic nomination market on 393 of its 464 days and peaked at 39.5% on 6 November 2025. He was 33.5% on 1 January 2026 and is 15.5% now.

Ocasio-Cortez first took the lead on 13 August 2026 and has led on 71 days since, peaking at 22.7%. Ossoff rose from 3.7% on 1 January to 14.7%. On 26 October the three were within 1.9 points, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in front.

2028 Democratic nomination price, four names

Polymarket, Monday readings, 21 July 2025 to 26 October 2026. Percent.

  • Gavin Newsom
  • Jon Ossoff
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
  • Kamala Harris
2028 Democratic nomination price, four names. Gavin Newsom: 21 Jul 21%, 28 Jul 21%, 4 Aug 20%, 11 Aug 19%, 18 Aug 19%, 25 Aug 31%, 1 Sep 32%, 8 Sep 35%, 15 Sep 36%, 22 Sep 36%, 29 Sep 37%, 6 Oct 37%, 13 Oct 36%, 20 Oct 35%, 27 Oct 36%, 3 Nov 38%, 10 Nov 39%, 17 Nov 37%, 24 Nov 37%, 1 Dec 37%, 8 Dec 36%, 15 Dec 35%, 22 Dec 35%, 29 Dec 34%, 5 Jan 2026 38%, 12 Jan 35%, 19 Jan 35%, 26 Jan 35%, 2 Feb 33%, 9 Feb 28%, 16 Feb 28%, 23 Feb 28%, 2 Mar 25%, 9 Mar 25%, 16 Mar 25%, 23 Mar 25%, 30 Mar 24%, 6 Apr 24%, 13 Apr 27%, 20 Apr 27%, 27 Apr 26%, 4 May 27%, 11 May 24%, 18 May 25%, 25 May 24%, 1 Jun 25%, 8 Jun 25%, 15 Jun 24%, 22 Jun 23%, 29 Jun 21%, 6 Jul 20%, 13 Jul 20%, 20 Jul 20%, 27 Jul 20%, 3 Aug 19%, 10 Aug 18%, 17 Aug 17%, 24 Aug 15%, 31 Aug 15%, 7 Sep 15%, 14 Sep 13%, 21 Sep 16%, 28 Sep 16%, 5 Oct 17%, 12 Oct 16%, 19 Oct 17%, 26 Oct 15%. Jon Ossoff: 21 Jul 3.8%, 28 Jul 3.6%, 4 Aug 3.6%, 11 Aug 3.5%, 18 Aug 3.1%, 25 Aug 3.9%, 1 Sep 3.7%, 8 Sep 6.4%, 15 Sep 3.8%, 22 Sep 4.2%, 29 Sep 4.1%, 6 Oct 3.5%, 13 Oct 3.7%, 20 Oct 3.2%, 27 Oct 3.2%, 3 Nov 4.6%, 10 Nov 4.2%, 17 Nov 3.8%, 24 Nov 3.9%, 1 Dec 4.1%, 8 Dec 3.7%, 15 Dec 2.8%, 22 Dec 3.2%, 29 Dec 3.3%, 5 Jan 2026 3%, 12 Jan 3%, 19 Jan 3.3%, 26 Jan 3.9%, 2 Feb 3.4%, 9 Feb 4.7%, 16 Feb 4.7%, 23 Feb 4.5%, 2 Mar 4.2%, 9 Mar 4.7%, 16 Mar 5.7%, 23 Mar 6.8%, 30 Mar 5.8%, 6 Apr 7%, 13 Apr 5.9%, 20 Apr 6.5%, 27 Apr 5.4%, 4 May 6.6%, 11 May 6.5%, 18 May 6.3%, 25 May 5.8%, 1 Jun 5.4%, 8 Jun 6.6%, 15 Jun 7.8%, 22 Jun 9.4%, 29 Jun 9.5%, 6 Jul 11%, 13 Jul 12%, 20 Jul 14%, 27 Jul 16%, 3 Aug 14%, 10 Aug 16%, 17 Aug 15%, 24 Aug 15%, 31 Aug 16%, 7 Sep 16%, 14 Sep 16%, 21 Sep 17%, 28 Sep 15%, 5 Oct 16%, 12 Oct 15%, 19 Oct 14%, 26 Oct 16%. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 21 Jul 17%, 28 Jul 16%, 4 Aug 16%, 11 Aug 15%, 18 Aug 13%, 25 Aug 13%, 1 Sep 9.5%, 8 Sep 8.5%, 15 Sep 7.5%, 22 Sep 12%, 29 Sep 11%, 6 Oct 9.5%, 13 Oct 11%, 20 Oct 12%, 27 Oct 12%, 3 Nov 14%, 10 Nov 14%, 17 Nov 12%, 24 Nov 12%, 1 Dec 12%, 8 Dec 11%, 15 Dec 11%, 22 Dec 11%, 29 Dec 13%, 5 Jan 2026 11%, 12 Jan 11%, 19 Jan 11%, 26 Jan 8.5%, 2 Feb 8.5%, 9 Feb 8.5%, 16 Feb 9.4%, 23 Feb 8.5%, 2 Mar 9.1%, 9 Mar 8.7%, 16 Mar 8.5%, 23 Mar 8.3%, 30 Mar 8.2%, 6 Apr 7.7%, 13 Apr 8.5%, 20 Apr 8.6%, 27 Apr 8.4%, 4 May 8.3%, 11 May 8.4%, 18 May 8.6%, 25 May 9.1%, 1 Jun 9.1%, 8 Jun 9.2%, 15 Jun 9.4%, 22 Jun 10%, 29 Jun 9.4%, 6 Jul 12%, 13 Jul 15%, 20 Jul 15%, 27 Jul 15%, 3 Aug 15%, 10 Aug 15%, 17 Aug 21%, 24 Aug 23%, 31 Aug 20%, 7 Sep 19%, 14 Sep 18%, 21 Sep 18%, 28 Sep 18%, 5 Oct 17%, 12 Oct 18%, 19 Oct 15%, 26 Oct 17%. Kamala Harris: 21 Jul 4.5%, 28 Jul 4.5%, 4 Aug 5.9%, 11 Aug 5.3%, 18 Aug 4.8%, 25 Aug 5%, 1 Sep 4.7%, 8 Sep 4.6%, 15 Sep 3.8%, 22 Sep 3.9%, 29 Sep 3.8%, 6 Oct 3.1%, 13 Oct 2.8%, 20 Oct 2.2%, 27 Oct 4.5%, 3 Nov 5.2%, 10 Nov 4.3%, 17 Nov 4.4%, 24 Nov 4.5%, 1 Dec 4.4%, 8 Dec 3.5%, 15 Dec 3.7%, 22 Dec 4.4%, 29 Dec 4.2%, 5 Jan 2026 3.9%, 12 Jan 3.8%, 19 Jan 4.1%, 26 Jan 4.3%, 2 Feb 4.9%, 9 Feb 5.6%, 16 Feb 5.2%, 23 Feb 5.9%, 2 Mar 5.7%, 9 Mar 5.4%, 16 Mar 5.5%, 23 Mar 5%, 30 Mar 4.5%, 6 Apr 4.2%, 13 Apr 5.7%, 20 Apr 5.7%, 27 Apr 8.4%, 4 May 11%, 11 May 9.1%, 18 May 8.7%, 25 May 8.8%, 1 Jun 7.9%, 8 Jun 7.8%, 15 Jun 7.4%, 22 Jun 7.2%, 29 Jun 6.4%, 6 Jul 6.8%, 13 Jul 7%, 20 Jul 6.8%, 27 Jul 8.6%, 3 Aug 8.6%, 10 Aug 7.6%, 17 Aug 7.5%, 24 Aug 7.5%, 31 Aug 7.7%, 7 Sep 7.9%, 14 Sep 8.1%, 21 Sep 8.5%, 28 Sep 6.3%, 5 Oct 6.6%, 12 Oct 6.3%, 19 Oct 7.2%, 26 Oct 6.6%0%10%20%30%40%21 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 21%28 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 21%4 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 20%11 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 19%18 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 19%25 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 31%1 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 32%8 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 35%15 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 36%22 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 36%29 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 37%6 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 37%13 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 36%20 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 35%27 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 36%3 Nov, Gavin Newsom: 38%10 Nov, Gavin Newsom: 39%17 Nov, Gavin Newsom: 37%24 Nov, Gavin Newsom: 37%1 Dec, Gavin Newsom: 37%8 Dec, Gavin Newsom: 36%15 Dec, Gavin Newsom: 35%22 Dec, Gavin Newsom: 35%29 Dec, Gavin Newsom: 34%5 Jan 2026, Gavin Newsom: 38%12 Jan, Gavin Newsom: 35%19 Jan, Gavin Newsom: 35%26 Jan, Gavin Newsom: 35%2 Feb, Gavin Newsom: 33%9 Feb, Gavin Newsom: 28%16 Feb, Gavin Newsom: 28%23 Feb, Gavin Newsom: 28%2 Mar, Gavin Newsom: 25%9 Mar, Gavin Newsom: 25%16 Mar, Gavin Newsom: 25%23 Mar, Gavin Newsom: 25%30 Mar, Gavin Newsom: 24%6 Apr, Gavin Newsom: 24%13 Apr, Gavin Newsom: 27%20 Apr, Gavin Newsom: 27%27 Apr, Gavin Newsom: 26%4 May, Gavin Newsom: 27%11 May, Gavin Newsom: 24%18 May, Gavin Newsom: 25%25 May, Gavin Newsom: 24%1 Jun, Gavin Newsom: 25%8 Jun, Gavin Newsom: 25%15 Jun, Gavin Newsom: 24%22 Jun, Gavin Newsom: 23%29 Jun, Gavin Newsom: 21%6 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 20%13 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 20%20 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 20%27 Jul, Gavin Newsom: 20%3 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 19%10 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 18%17 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 17%24 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 15%31 Aug, Gavin Newsom: 15%7 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 15%14 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 13%21 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 16%28 Sep, Gavin Newsom: 16%5 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 17%12 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 16%19 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 17%26 Oct, Gavin Newsom: 15%39%21 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 3.8%28 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 3.6%4 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 3.6%11 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 3.5%18 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 3.1%25 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 3.9%1 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 3.7%8 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 6.4%15 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 3.8%22 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 4.2%29 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 4.1%6 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 3.5%13 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 3.7%20 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 3.2%27 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 3.2%3 Nov, Jon Ossoff: 4.6%10 Nov, Jon Ossoff: 4.2%17 Nov, Jon Ossoff: 3.8%24 Nov, Jon Ossoff: 3.9%1 Dec, Jon Ossoff: 4.1%8 Dec, Jon Ossoff: 3.7%15 Dec, Jon Ossoff: 2.8%22 Dec, Jon Ossoff: 3.2%29 Dec, Jon Ossoff: 3.3%5 Jan 2026, Jon Ossoff: 3%12 Jan, Jon Ossoff: 3%19 Jan, Jon Ossoff: 3.3%26 Jan, Jon Ossoff: 3.9%2 Feb, Jon Ossoff: 3.4%9 Feb, Jon Ossoff: 4.7%16 Feb, Jon Ossoff: 4.7%23 Feb, Jon Ossoff: 4.5%2 Mar, Jon Ossoff: 4.2%9 Mar, Jon Ossoff: 4.7%16 Mar, Jon Ossoff: 5.7%23 Mar, Jon Ossoff: 6.8%30 Mar, Jon Ossoff: 5.8%6 Apr, Jon Ossoff: 7%13 Apr, Jon Ossoff: 5.9%20 Apr, Jon Ossoff: 6.5%27 Apr, Jon Ossoff: 5.4%4 May, Jon Ossoff: 6.6%11 May, Jon Ossoff: 6.5%18 May, Jon Ossoff: 6.3%25 May, Jon Ossoff: 5.8%1 Jun, Jon Ossoff: 5.4%8 Jun, Jon Ossoff: 6.6%15 Jun, Jon Ossoff: 7.8%22 Jun, Jon Ossoff: 9.4%29 Jun, Jon Ossoff: 9.5%6 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 11%13 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 12%20 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 14%27 Jul, Jon Ossoff: 16%3 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 14%10 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 16%17 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 15%24 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 15%31 Aug, Jon Ossoff: 16%7 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 16%14 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 16%21 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 17%28 Sep, Jon Ossoff: 15%5 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 16%12 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 15%19 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 14%26 Oct, Jon Ossoff: 16%21 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%28 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 16%4 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 16%11 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 15%18 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%25 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%1 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.5%8 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%15 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.5%22 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 12%29 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%6 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.5%13 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%20 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 12%27 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 12%3 Nov, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 14%10 Nov, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 14%17 Nov, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 12%24 Nov, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 12%1 Dec, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 12%8 Dec, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%15 Dec, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%22 Dec, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%29 Dec, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13%5 Jan 2026, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%12 Jan, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%19 Jan, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 11%26 Jan, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%2 Feb, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%9 Feb, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%16 Feb, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.4%23 Feb, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%2 Mar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.1%9 Mar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.7%16 Mar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%23 Mar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.3%30 Mar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.2%6 Apr, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7.7%13 Apr, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%20 Apr, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.6%27 Apr, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.4%4 May, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.3%11 May, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.4%18 May, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.6%25 May, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.1%1 Jun, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.1%8 Jun, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.2%15 Jun, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.4%22 Jun, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 10%29 Jun, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.4%6 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 12%13 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 15%20 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 15%27 Jul, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 15%3 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 15%10 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 15%17 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 21%24 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 23%31 Aug, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 20%7 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 19%14 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%21 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%28 Sep, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%5 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%12 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%19 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 15%26 Oct, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%21 Jul, Kamala Harris: 4.5%28 Jul, Kamala Harris: 4.5%4 Aug, Kamala Harris: 5.9%11 Aug, Kamala Harris: 5.3%18 Aug, Kamala Harris: 4.8%25 Aug, Kamala Harris: 5%1 Sep, Kamala Harris: 4.7%8 Sep, Kamala Harris: 4.6%15 Sep, Kamala Harris: 3.8%22 Sep, Kamala Harris: 3.9%29 Sep, Kamala Harris: 3.8%6 Oct, Kamala Harris: 3.1%13 Oct, Kamala Harris: 2.8%20 Oct, Kamala Harris: 2.2%27 Oct, Kamala Harris: 4.5%3 Nov, Kamala Harris: 5.2%10 Nov, Kamala Harris: 4.3%17 Nov, Kamala Harris: 4.4%24 Nov, Kamala Harris: 4.5%1 Dec, Kamala Harris: 4.4%8 Dec, Kamala Harris: 3.5%15 Dec, Kamala Harris: 3.7%22 Dec, Kamala Harris: 4.4%29 Dec, Kamala Harris: 4.2%5 Jan 2026, Kamala Harris: 3.9%12 Jan, Kamala Harris: 3.8%19 Jan, Kamala Harris: 4.1%26 Jan, Kamala Harris: 4.3%2 Feb, Kamala Harris: 4.9%9 Feb, Kamala Harris: 5.6%16 Feb, Kamala Harris: 5.2%23 Feb, Kamala Harris: 5.9%2 Mar, Kamala Harris: 5.7%9 Mar, Kamala Harris: 5.4%16 Mar, Kamala Harris: 5.5%23 Mar, Kamala Harris: 5%30 Mar, Kamala Harris: 4.5%6 Apr, Kamala Harris: 4.2%13 Apr, Kamala Harris: 5.7%20 Apr, Kamala Harris: 5.7%27 Apr, Kamala Harris: 8.4%4 May, Kamala Harris: 11%11 May, Kamala Harris: 9.1%18 May, Kamala Harris: 8.7%25 May, Kamala Harris: 8.8%1 Jun, Kamala Harris: 7.9%8 Jun, Kamala Harris: 7.8%15 Jun, Kamala Harris: 7.4%22 Jun, Kamala Harris: 7.2%29 Jun, Kamala Harris: 6.4%6 Jul, Kamala Harris: 6.8%13 Jul, Kamala Harris: 7%20 Jul, Kamala Harris: 6.8%27 Jul, Kamala Harris: 8.6%3 Aug, Kamala Harris: 8.6%10 Aug, Kamala Harris: 7.6%17 Aug, Kamala Harris: 7.5%24 Aug, Kamala Harris: 7.5%31 Aug, Kamala Harris: 7.7%7 Sep, Kamala Harris: 7.9%14 Sep, Kamala Harris: 8.1%21 Sep, Kamala Harris: 8.5%28 Sep, Kamala Harris: 6.3%5 Oct, Kamala Harris: 6.6%12 Oct, Kamala Harris: 6.3%19 Oct, Kamala Harris: 7.2%26 Oct, Kamala Harris: 6.6%21 Jul15 Sep10 Nov5 Jan 20262 Mar27 Apr22 Jun17 Aug12 Oct

Chart: Vultax Research

Show the numbers
2028 Democratic nomination price, four names. Polymarket, Monday readings, 21 July 2025 to 26 October 2026. Percent. Values in %.
PointGavin NewsomJon OssoffAlexandria Ocasio-CortezKamala Harris
21 Jul21%3.8%17%4.5%
28 Jul21%3.6%16%4.5%
4 Aug20%3.6%16%5.9%
11 Aug19%3.5%15%5.3%
18 Aug19%3.1%13%4.8%
25 Aug31%3.9%13%5%
1 Sep32%3.7%9.5%4.7%
8 Sep35%6.4%8.5%4.6%
15 Sep36%3.8%7.5%3.8%
22 Sep36%4.2%12%3.9%
29 Sep37%4.1%11%3.8%
6 Oct37%3.5%9.5%3.1%
13 Oct36%3.7%11%2.8%
20 Oct35%3.2%12%2.2%
27 Oct36%3.2%12%4.5%
3 Nov38%4.6%14%5.2%
10 Nov39%4.2%14%4.3%
17 Nov37%3.8%12%4.4%
24 Nov37%3.9%12%4.5%
1 Dec37%4.1%12%4.4%
8 Dec36%3.7%11%3.5%
15 Dec35%2.8%11%3.7%
22 Dec35%3.2%11%4.4%
29 Dec34%3.3%13%4.2%
5 Jan 202638%3%11%3.9%
12 Jan35%3%11%3.8%
19 Jan35%3.3%11%4.1%
26 Jan35%3.9%8.5%4.3%
2 Feb33%3.4%8.5%4.9%
9 Feb28%4.7%8.5%5.6%
16 Feb28%4.7%9.4%5.2%
23 Feb28%4.5%8.5%5.9%
2 Mar25%4.2%9.1%5.7%
9 Mar25%4.7%8.7%5.4%
16 Mar25%5.7%8.5%5.5%
23 Mar25%6.8%8.3%5%
30 Mar24%5.8%8.2%4.5%
6 Apr24%7%7.7%4.2%
13 Apr27%5.9%8.5%5.7%
20 Apr27%6.5%8.6%5.7%
27 Apr26%5.4%8.4%8.4%
4 May27%6.6%8.3%11%
11 May24%6.5%8.4%9.1%
18 May25%6.3%8.6%8.7%
25 May24%5.8%9.1%8.8%
1 Jun25%5.4%9.1%7.9%
8 Jun25%6.6%9.2%7.8%
15 Jun24%7.8%9.4%7.4%
22 Jun23%9.4%10%7.2%
29 Jun21%9.5%9.4%6.4%
6 Jul20%11%12%6.8%
13 Jul20%12%15%7%
20 Jul20%14%15%6.8%
27 Jul20%16%15%8.6%
3 Aug19%14%15%8.6%
10 Aug18%16%15%7.6%
17 Aug17%15%21%7.5%
24 Aug15%15%23%7.5%
31 Aug15%16%20%7.7%
7 Sep15%16%19%7.9%
14 Sep13%16%18%8.1%
21 Sep16%17%18%8.5%
28 Sep16%15%18%6.3%
5 Oct17%16%17%6.6%
12 Oct16%15%18%6.3%
19 Oct17%14%15%7.2%
26 Oct15%16%17%6.6%

Download chart figures:CSVJSON with sources

The Republican nomination: Vance on top every day

Vance has led the Republican nomination market on every one of its 464 days. He peaked at 59.5% on 7 November 2025 and is 37.6% now. Rubio, second, peaked at 28.2% on 13 July 2026 and is 18.1%.

What the 2024 market did after the last midterms

Polymarket's 2024 Republican nominee markets show how much a lead two years out can move. Donald Trump's price was 63.0% on 1 December 2022, a few weeks after the 2022 midterms, and 34.0% on 18 December. Ron DeSantis, at 44.0% that day, was ahead for 18 days in a row, from 18 December 2022 to 4 January 2023, and reached 48.0%.

By 27 January 2023 Trump was back ahead, 47.0% to 35.0%, and he won the nomination. The 2024 markets were single Yes or No markets with thin trading, so they are a rough guide; the point is the size of the swing, not the exact level.

How to read a 2028 price

The same reading, what a price did before a result, is applied to award and sports markets in our Ballon d'Or study.

  • A 2028 price is a two-year bet. 19.9% for Vance means the market sees about four chances in five that someone else wins.
  • Money in a 2028 market is tied up until it settles in November 2028, so a gap between two markets can last for months.
  • The winner, nomination and party markets answer different questions. Dividing the winner price by the nomination price shows where they disagree.
  • The 2026 midterms on 3 November are the next scheduled event that can move these prices.

Method and limits

Prices are Polymarket's Yes prices from its public price-history API: minute values for 26 October 2026 and daily values for everything else. A name leads a market on a day when it has the highest daily price. The weekly charts show a name at zero before its market was listed.

The implied chance if nominated assumes the winner and nomination markets price the same person on the same footing; they are separate markets with separate traders, so treat the column as approximate. The 2024 comparison uses Polymarket's single nominee markets for Trump and DeSantis, which started trading in November and December 2022.

This page reads public prices; it is not a forecast by Vultax, not a statement about any candidate and not advice to trade.

Downloads reproduce this page’s tables and charts with their source notes. Live market widgets are separate. Use Vultax research with an AI assistant. Press note.

Questions this page answers

Who is the favourite to win the 2028 presidential election?
JD Vance, at 19.9% on Polymarket at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12.9% and Gavin Newsom at 11.5%.
Which party is favoured to win in 2028?
Democrats, at 64.5% in Polymarket's party market on 26 October 2026, against 34.5% for Republicans. Democrats were 52.5% on 1 January 2026.
Who leads the 2028 Democratic nomination odds?
No one clearly. On 26 October 2026 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was 16.6%, Gavin Newsom 15.5% and Jon Ossoff 14.7%. Newsom had been 39.5% in November 2025.
Did Polymarket's early favourite win the 2024 Republican nomination?
Trump was ahead at first, then Ron DeSantis led for 18 days from 18 December 2022, reaching 48.0%. Trump was back ahead by late January 2023 and won the nomination.

Revision notes

This page is kept current. Each entry records what changed and when; the live figures above refresh on their own.

  • Published before the 2026 midterms, with Polymarket's 2028 prices read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026.

Sources and evidence

A reading of public market prices at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax, not a statement about any candidate and not advice to trade.

Watch this measurement live in Vultax.

Live Polymarket prices for the 2028 winner, both nominations and the vice-presidential picks, the markets this study reads.

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