Polymarket efficiency: two tests, updated monthly

The series tracks two questions: how bids add up across the outcomes of an event, and how prices compare with later results. The basket snapshot is dated 15 October 2026, 13:14 UTC; the resolved-contract analysis covers January 2025 to September 2026.

These are related tests with stated implementation gaps, rather than a matched comparison of venues. Read the definitions and limitations.

Related Vultax research: Polymarket price calibration and deadline-market accuracy.