Press note
Polymarket's Up-or-Down Crypto Markets: 60% of Its Trades, Priced About Right, 1.6% Fee
59.6%Observed Polymarket trades in up-or-down markets
8.9 million of 15.0 million trades in 251 observed hours, 21 August to 12 September 2026; 15.7% of the money, at $12.82 a trade
Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced. Counted by trades, most of what happens on Polymarket is not elections, sports or the Fed but a bet on whether Bitcoin, or another crypto asset, will be higher or lower a few minutes from now. Across 251 hours of Polymarket trading that Vultax recorded between 21 August and 12 September 2026, up-or-down markets took 59.6% of 15.0 million trades. At an average of $12.82 a trade, against $101.80 everywhere else, they carried 15.7% of observed notional.
Observed 2026-08-21T12:00Z to 2026-09-12T18:00Z, population: 14,973,743 Polymarket trades in 251 observed hours.
Supporting figures
- 58.6% — Up-or-down trades made by 379 walletsThe busiest 1% of the 37,970 wallets that traded them; the ten busiest made 22.8%
- 74.6% — Half-way favourites that wonAt an average price of 75.0¢, 2,276 Bitcoin and Ether markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026; a minute before close, 79.0% at 79.0¢
- ≈1.6% — Taker fee on a five-minute tradeOf notional, at Polymarket's published 0.07 crypto rate and 12 September prices; per share, 1.16¢ at the half-way price. Makers pay nothing
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How to cite
Vultax Research, Polymarket's Up-or-Down Crypto Markets: 60% of Its Trades, Priced About Right, 1.6% Fee, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets
Published 2026-09-15, last revised 2026-09-16. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version · Use our data