Press note
Nobel Peace Prize Odds: The 2025 Market Rose 66 Points Before the Announcement
+65.8 ptsWinner's move in the 12 hours before the 2025 announcement
From 1.5% to 67.3% on Polymarket's 10-minute price, 57 times its largest 12-hour move of the prior 30 days
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize market on Polymarket moved 65.8 points toward the winner in the 12 hours before the announcement, 57 times its largest 12-hour move of the prior 30 days and the largest of 50 award announcements. The 2026 market is measured the same way. In the 12 hours before the Norwegian Nobel Committee named María Corina Machado on 10 October 2025, her Polymarket price rose 65.8 points, from 1.5% to 67.3%. Across 50 committee-decided award announcements between January 2025 and April 2026, the median winner moved 0.35 points in the same window, and one other moved more than 20. For 2026, Polymarket's favourite at 19:00 UTC on 29 September 2026 was Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 16.4%.
Observed 2025-10-09T20:50Z to 2025-10-10T09:00Z, population: Machado's Yes price, Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize 2025.
Supporting figures
- 1 of 50 — Rank among award announcementsJanuary 2025 to April 2026; the median winner moved 0.35 points
- 1,927× — Final-12-hour dollars against the quiet-period average$946,165 from 1,152 taker wallets; the median award saw 15.5×
- 3 of 50 — Winners that moved outside their own 30-day rangeA final-12-hour rise larger than any 12-hour move in the 30 days before
Images
Vultax Research
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Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
- The numbers behind the headline chart
- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the Nobel Prize odds room
- Live Polymarket prices for every 2026 Nobel Peace Prize candidate: the market this study measures on announcement day.
Press contact
Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Vultax Research, Nobel Peace Prize Odds: The 2025 Market Rose 66 Points Before the Announcement, 2026-09-30, https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement
Published 2026-09-30. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version · Use our data