Press note
Nobel Peace Prize odds: 2026 result, saved forecast and 2025 study
+65.8 ptsWinner's move in the 12 hours before the 2025 announcement
From 1.5% to 67.3% on Polymarket's 10-minute price, 57 times its largest 12-hour move of the prior 30 days
Navi Pillay won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. Compare the official result with our frozen forecast, dated 2026 market snapshots and the 2025 study of prices before the announcement. The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize market moved further before its announcement than any other award in the data. In the 12 hours before the Norwegian Nobel Committee named María Corina Machado on 10 October 2025, her Polymarket price rose 65.8 points, from 1.5% to 67.3%. Across 50 award markets measured the same way, decided at 11 announcements between January 2025 and April 2026, the median change was +0.35 points and the median size of a move, in either direction, was 2.0 points. One other winner rose by more than 20. Our separate experimental forecast, frozen before the announcement, has been scored.
Observed 2025-10-09T20:50Z to 2025-10-10T09:00Z, population: Machado's Yes price, Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize 2025.
Supporting figures
- 1 of 50 — Rank among award markets50 winner markets at 11 announcements, January 2025 to April 2026; median change +0.35 points
- 1,927× — Final-12-hour dollars against the quiet-period average$946,165 from 1,152 taker wallets; the median award market saw 13.9×
- 3 of 50 — Winners that moved outside their own 30-day rangeA final-12-hour rise larger than any 12-hour move in the 30 days before
Images
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Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
- The numbers behind the headline chart
- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Explore Nobel odds by year
- Open markets and covered past cycles by year. Historical prices, official results and the frozen Vultax forecast are separate records.
Press contact
Vultax Research — research@vultax.com
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How to cite
Holguín, Julian, Nobel Peace Prize odds: 2026 result, saved forecast and 2025 study, 2026-10-27, https://vultax.com/research/nobel-peace-prize-odds-before-announcement
Published 2026-09-30, last revised 2026-10-27. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version, Use our data