Press note
Polymarket 'By Date' Favourites at 84¢ a Month Out Came True 64% of the Time
64.3%Deadline markets above 65¢ a month out that came true
84 markets in 72 events, average price 83.7¢; 95% interval clustered by event 53.7–75.0%
Every settled Polymarket market worded 'by' or 'before' a date, January 2025 to April 2026, scored against its price 90, 30 and 7 days before the deadline and clustered by event. Markets above 65¢ a month out came true 64.3% of the time; a week out, 90.5%. A Polymarket market that asks whether something happens by a date comes true less often than its price says when it trades as a favourite a month before the deadline. Ninety days out the same band averaged 84.4¢ and came true 75.4% of the time. Seven days out it averaged 84.9¢ and came true 90.5%, above its price. A month out is where the price of 'it will happen in time' runs furthest ahead of the calendar.
Observed 2025-01-01 to 2026-04-28, population: 938 deadline-worded markets with a trade within 48 hours of T−30 days.
Supporting figures
- 90.5% — The same price band a week before the deadline74 markets in 70 events at an average 84.9¢
- 13.7% — Long shots at 5–15¢ a month out that came true190 markets at an average 8.9¢
- 53 of 372 — End-2025 markets open on 1 October 2025 that resolved YesTheir 1 October prices added up to 70.5 expected Yes
Images
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- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the NATO–Russia deadline ladder
- Every rung of the NATO–Russia 'by date' markets with live Polymarket prices, updated through the day.
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How to cite
Vultax Research, Polymarket 'By Date' Favourites at 84¢ a Month Out Came True 64% of the Time, 2026-10-05, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-deadline-markets-accuracy
Published 2026-10-05. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version · Use our data