Press note
ECB Rate Decision Odds: Polymarket's Favourite a Week Out Was Right at 15 of 15 Meetings
15 of 15ECB decisions called a week out
Polymarket's highest-priced outcome 7 days before the statement was the decision the ECB took, at every traded meeting from October 2024 to September 2026
A week before each ECB decision from October 2024 to September 2026, Polymarket's favourite was the decision the ECB took, at a median 98.2%. A month out it missed twice. Both 2026 rate rises were priced above 98% a week ahead. Polymarket has listed a market on every ECB rate decision since October 2024. At 15 meetings with trading, from 17 October 2024 to 10 September 2026, the outcome with the highest price seven days before the statement was the decision the ECB announced, 15 times out of 15. The median price of that decision a week out was 98.2%, and the lowest was 87.0%, for the cut of 12 December 2024. A month out the record is weaker. Thirty days before the statement the favourite was right at 12 of the 14 meetings whose market was open by then.
Observed 2024-10-10 to 2026-09-03, population: The outcome contract that matched the decision.
Supporting figures
- 98.2% — Median price of the ECB's decision a week outLowest 87.0%, for the cut of 12 December 2024
- 2 of 14 — Misses a month outThe cuts of October 2024 and April 2025 were priced at 36.0% and 41.5% 30 days before
- 98.5% — June 2026 rate rise, priced a week outThe first ECB rise since 2023. It was 80.5% a month before; the September rise was 99.3% a week before
Images
Share card, 1200×630 — the headline figure and the title, rendered. Credit Vultax Research.
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Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
- The numbers behind the headline chart
- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the ECB rates room
- Live Polymarket prices for the 29 October and 17 December 2026 ECB decisions, the markets this study scores.
Press contact
Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Vultax Research, ECB Rate Decision Odds: Polymarket's Favourite a Week Out Was Right at 15 of 15 Meetings, 2026-10-28, https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket
Published 2026-10-28. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version, Use our data