Press note
Government Shutdown Odds: A Week In, Polymarket Put 5.5% on When the Record Shutdown Ended
5.5%The winning end-date window a week into the 2025 shutdown
12 to 15 November, at 12:00 UTC on 7 October 2025. An end by 18 October had 47.0%
Seven days into the 43-day shutdown of 2025, Polymarket gave 47.0% to an end by 18 October and 5.5% to the window it ended in, 12 to 15 November. In 2026 a market at 96.5% the day before resolved No on its rules. The federal government shut down on 1 October 2025 and reopened after 43 days, the longest shutdown on record, when President Trump signed a funding bill on the evening of 12 November. Polymarket's market on when it would end spent most of those six weeks expecting it to end sooner. The rules decided the payouts as much as the events. The market on the exact day paid 13 November, the date of the Office of Personnel Management's announcement, although the most money, $13.1m, was on 12 November.
Observed 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-12, population: Yes prices of the date windows in Polymarket's When will the Government shutdown end? market.
Supporting figures
- $13.1m — Traded on 12 November in the end-day marketThe most of any day. The market paid 13 November, the date of OPM's announcement under its rules
- 96.5% — The February 2026 market the day beforeOn 13 February 2026. Homeland Security's funding lapsed the next day; the market, which needed an OPM announcement of a new shutdown, resolved No
- $157.3m — Traded on the January 2026 shutdown marketA partial shutdown began on 31 January 2026 and ended on 3 February
Images
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Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
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- Chart figures (CSV)
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- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the US economy room
- Live Polymarket prices on the Fed, inflation, jobs and Washington's deadlines.
Press contact
Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Vultax Research Team, Government Shutdown Odds: A Week In, Polymarket Put 5.5% on When the Record Shutdown Ended, 2026-11-06, https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket
Published 2026-11-06. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version, Use our data