Press note
Best AI Model Odds: Polymarket's Favourite a Week Out Won 21 of 22 Month-End Checks
21 of 22Month-end checks the week-out favourite won
Polymarket's monthly best AI model markets, December 2024 to September 2026. The miss was March 2025, when Gemini 2.5 Pro arrived six days before the check
Polymarket asks every month which company will top the LMArena text leaderboard. A week before each check from December 2024 to September 2026, the favourite won 21 times in 22. The one miss: Gemini 2.5 Pro, released six days before the March 2025 check. The one miss came from a release. On 24 March 2025, a week before the check, xAI was 92.5% to hold the top spot at the end of the month and Google was 5.2%. Google released Gemini 2.5 Pro on 25 March, it went straight to first place, and between 14:22 and 16:57 UTC that day Google's price went from 15.0% to 86.4%. Three companies have held the top spot at a month-end: Google 13 times, Anthropic 8 times in a row from February 2026, and xAI once, in February 2025.
Observed 2024-12-18 to 2026-09-30, population: Polymarket's 22 monthly best AI model markets, settled.
Supporting figures
- 92.5% — xAI a week before the March 2025 checkGoogle was 5.2%. Google released Gemini 2.5 Pro on 25 March and won the 31 March check
- 8 — Month-ends with Anthropic on topEvery check from February to September 2026. Google held the top spot at 13 month-ends before that, xAI at 1
- 73.1% — Google for October 2026, read 19 OctoberAnthropic 25.5%, at 21:16 UTC on 19 October 2026, twelve days before the check
Images
Share card, 1200×630 — the headline figure and the title, rendered. Credit Vultax Research.
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Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
- The numbers behind the headline chart
- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the AI race room
- Live Polymarket prices on which company tops the AI leaderboard at the end of October and of 2026.
Press contact
Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Vultax Research, Best AI Model Odds: Polymarket's Favourite a Week Out Won 21 of 22 Month-End Checks, 2026-10-26, https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket
Published 2026-10-26. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version, Use our data