Press note
A liquidity result depends on which quotes survive
445 marketsOriginal sample
Same sample as the earlier incentive study; this is a sensitivity analysis.
In the same 445-market incentive sample, an 18-hour coverage rule keeps 36 markets and a two-cent median widening; complete coverage keeps 11 and a zero median change. The coverage rule changes both the number of usable markets and the result being described. In Vultax's published 445-market Kalshi incentive-ending sample, requiring 18 valid quote hours in each 24-hour window retains 36 paired markets. Their median spread change is two cents wider. Requiring all 24 hours retains 11, and their median change is zero. That does not prove either threshold is right. It shows that the population behind the headline changes when the threshold changes. The complete-case result is also a small, selected subset, not a correction that reveals the effect on every market.
Observed 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-15, population: 445 selected Kalshi markets, 408 series, ending incentive runs.
Supporting figures
- 36 pairs — 18-hour ruleMedian paired spread change +2.0 cents; no matched controls.
- 11 pairs — 24-hour ruleMedian paired spread change 0.0 cents; a different retained subset.
Images
Vultax Research
The study’s illustration, free to run with that credit and a link. It is artwork, not a figure.
Share card, 1200×630 — the headline figure and the title, rendered. Credit Vultax Research.
Reproducing one of the study’s figures instead? Caption it “Chart: Vultax Research”. Higher resolutions and other crops on request.
Links
- The study
- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
- The numbers behind the headline chart
- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Explore prediction market analytics
- Inspect market context in Vultax; the downloadable study remains a dated snapshot.
Press contact
Vultax Research — [email protected]
Questions on method, a figure checked before you print it, a chart at another size, or a cut of the data this study does not publish. Say what you are writing and when it runs.
How to cite
Vultax Research, A liquidity result depends on which quotes survive, 2026-09-20, https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-quote-coverage-sensitivity
Published 2026-09-20. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version · Use our data