Press note
The Polymarket Insider Screen, Run Platform-Wide: 113,863 Bets, 24% Won, −3.7%
−3.67%Return on the flagged bet type, platform-wide
113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1,238,620,067 staked, 24.37% won at an average entry price of 23.01¢. Polymarket settled markets, 1 January 2025 to 28 April 2026. After fees: −4.33%
The screen used to flag insider wallets on Polymarket — $2,500 or more inside an hour on an outcome at 35 cents or less — run across every settled Polymarket market from January 2025 to April 2026: 113,863 bets by 17,858 wallets, $1.24bn staked, 24.4% won, a return of −3.67%. The bet that an insider screen on Polymarket is built from has a public definition: more than $2,500 wagered, cumulatively and within an hour, on an outcome priced at 35 cents or less. The published screen then keeps the wallets that won more than 75% of theirs while concentrating on a few markets and topics, and those wallets are the ones that get written about. What has not been published beside them is the denominator — what that bet type does for everybody who places it, across the whole platform.
Observed 2025-01-01 to 2026-04-28, population: 714,691,643 fills across 662,215 settled Polymarket markets.
Supporting figures
- +16.87% — Politics, the one large category that paid11,049 bets, $140.9M staked, 23.61% won. Sports is 61.7% of all flagged bets and returned −1.77%; Fed rate decisions returned −96.44% at a 2.15% win rate
- 1.79× — Perfect records vs chance33 wallets won every one of 3 or more qualifying bets; 18.5 were expected if each bet won at its own market-implied price. 32 of the 33 placed only 3 or 4 bets
- −5.14% — Return for wallets under 24 hours old4,860 wallets, 27,910 bets, $381.3M staked, $19.58M lost — the worst of five age bands. First-seen is an upper bound: the record starts 1 January 2025
Images
Vultax Research
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Links
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- Full text, sources and method
- Markdown edition
- Plain text for quoting and for assistants
- Chart figures (CSV)
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- All datasets (JSON)
- Every published table and chart, with units and sources
- Open the Polymarket leaderboard
- Every tracked Polymarket wallet with its realised profit, win rate and activity, ranked from Vultax's own record of fills.
Press contact
Vultax Research — [email protected]
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How to cite
Vultax Research, The Polymarket Insider Screen, Run Platform-Wide: 113,863 Bets, 24% Won, −3.7%, 2026-09-21, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-longshot-insider-screen-base-rate
Published 2026-09-21. Figures are the published study; live screens move. Plain-text version · Use our data