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Prediction Market Payout Calculator
A winning $1 share pays $1; profit is what remains after buying it and paying costs. Calculate both outcomes, then compare a hypothetical sale with holding at a probability you enter.
Compare payout and selling
Your scenario
$59.00 profit if your outcome wins
- Total entry cost
- $41.00
- Payout if your outcome wins
- $100.00
- Loss if it loses
- $41.00
- Break-even probability after entry costs
- 41%
- Net sale proceeds at your entered price
- $59.00
- Profit or loss if sold
- $18.00
- Expected hold profit at your probability
- $24.00
- Risk-neutral hold/sell indifference probability
- 59%
A binary contract paying $1 per winning share and $0 per losing share. Your probability is an assumption, not a Vultax forecast. Expected hold value equals net sale proceeds at the indifference probability; above it, expected hold value is higher. Time value, payout delays and partial or disputed settlement are excluded. A threshold above 100% cannot be reached by a valid probability.
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Worked example
100 shares bought at 40¢ with $1 of entry costs cost $41. They pay $100 if they win: $59 profit. A sale at 60¢ with a $1 sale fee returns $59, or $18 profit. At your assumed 65% probability, holding has $24 of expected profit; the hold/sell indifference point is 59%.
Entry cost = shares × purchase price + entry costs. Expected hold profit = shares × your probability − entry cost. Hold/sell indifference probability = net sale proceeds ÷ shares.
Payout is not profit
On a binary contract with $1 winning shares, the payout depends on how many winning shares you hold. The purchase price determines how much you invested. Fees raise the break-even probability; a losing outcome returns zero under this model.
The payout convention must match the contract. Void, scalar, partial-payout and other special resolution cases need the actual rules. This calculator does not decide how a disputed contract will resolve.
Compare selling with holding on the same basis
Entry cost is already incurred in both choices. The relevant comparison now is net sale proceeds against expected future payout. This is why the hold/sell threshold differs from the original trade's break-even probability.
A quoted price is not a guaranteed full fill. If the sale cannot fill at the entered price, the comparison changes. Settlement delays and the value of having cash sooner are not priced here.
Questions about this calculation
- How do Polymarket winning shares pay out?
- For the standard binary $1 contract described in Polymarket's documentation, each correct share redeems for $1. Apply the actual contract's resolution rules; a market's quoted percentage alone does not determine its payout.
- Does a 65% probability mean I will make the expected profit?
- No. In a single binary outcome the scenario either wins or loses. Expected profit is the probability-weighted average under your assumption, not a guaranteed payout.