Prediction-market directory
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Compare the statements and evidence we have collected. Each column retains its source dates; historical claims and missing fields are visible.
Catalogue fields are historical source statements. Page metadata may refer to a publisher or embedded product. Neither establishes the verified legal operator, present pricing, regulatory status or quality of a service.
Download this comparison as CSV| Field | Metaforecast VK-19de440c5df41ad8 | alexmccullough VK-ea2adcf48fc797fa |
|---|---|---|
| Published contributor description | Not supplied | Not supplied |
| Contributor pricing statement | Not supplied | Not supplied |
| Contributor details published | Not supplied | Not supplied |
| Profile claim | No active approved claim | No active approved claim |
| Record evidence | Historical catalogue only | Historical catalogue only |
| Historical product description | Former QURI search engine that indexed probabilities from Metaculus, Manifold, Polymarket and other platforms with a GraphQL API. The domain now redirects to the QURI blog. | Dune dashboard testing Polymarket calibration: how often markets priced at a given probability resolved yes, by time horizon and price bucket. |
| Name in the historical catalogue | Metaforecast | alexmccullough |
| Reported category | Dashboards | Dashboards |
| Reported venues | Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus, PredictIt, Kalshi | Polymarket |
| Historical pricing statement | Free | Free |
| Open-source claim | Source says yes | Source says no |
| Execution claim | Source says no | Source says no |
| Historical status statement | shut_down | live |
| Historical backer statement | Not stated | Not stated |
| Catalogue-reported repository | https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/metaforecast | Not stated |
| Catalogue's own check date | 2026-08-27 | 2026-08-27 |
| Catalogue snapshot date (UTC) | 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-08 |
| Operator name in page metadata | Not captured | Not captured |
| Location in page metadata | Not captured | Not captured |
| Founding date in page metadata | Not captured | Not captured |
| Page-declared statements | 0 | 0 |
| Linked repository records | 0 | 0 |
| Vultax assessment | Not assessed | Not assessed |
| Website | https://metaforecast.org | https://dune.com/alexmccullough/how-accurate-is-polymarket |
| Evidence | View source (opens in a new tab) Snapshot: Complete profile and history | View source (opens in a new tab) Snapshot: Complete profile and history |
Historical descriptions and catalogue claims: Kairos contributors, CC BY 4.0. Vultax adds source matching, presentation and factual comparisons. Attribution, licences and coverage.