Do Europe's blocks hold?

What the latest run shows

In the seven countries Polymarket restricts itself, its own check refused every one of the 44 probes it answered. Another 10 probes did not reach it at all.

In the six countries with a blocking order that Polymarket does not apply itself, the site answered open on 14 of the 23 networks measured. No probe reached it on Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone in Spain; Sunrise in Switzerland; Orange in Romania; and Vodafone in Czechia. The probes disagreed on Vodafone and NOS in Portugal, and on Vodafone in Romania.

In Austria, Sweden and Finland, where no action is on record, the site answered open on every network measured.

Kalshi's servers answered 49 of 60 probes with a security check instead of the homepage, so on those networks the request got through. No probe reached Kalshi on Orange (AS12392) in Belgium; Orange and T-Mobile in Poland; Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone in Spain; Sunrise in Switzerland; MEO in Portugal; Vodafone in Romania; and Vodafone in Czechia.

At a glance

Latest run, 3 November 2026, grouped by the Europe record. A network appears in two columns when its probes disagreed.

How to read it

Blocked by the site

Polymarket's check answered and said it does not take new positions from that location.

Open

The check answered and said it does.

Did not reach

The probe never got the check's answer: the name did not resolve, the connection was reset or timed out, or another page came back, such as a regulator's notice. This is what a block by an internet provider looks like from a home line. It is also what a faulty probe looks like, so one week proves little; the weekly series shows whether a network fails every time.

No result

No probe was available on that network, or its answer could not be read. Neither is ever counted as open.

The Kalshi column keeps only the status of the homepage. A checkpoint means the request reached Kalshi's servers, which answered with a security check instead of the page; it is not a block. From 10 November 2026 this becomes a connection check that asks for no page. The probes are Globalping volunteers on home internet lines: two per named network ask Polymarket, one checks Kalshi. They are not a sample of households, and the same probe is not guaranteed from one week to the next. Countries are grouped, and each is introduced, by the Europe record, where the orders, Polymarket's own restrictions list and the regulators' own words are kept.

By country

Method

Each run follows a method written down and hashed before the runs it covers, and never edited afterwards; a change is a new file with its own date and hash. Up to four home networks per country are chosen from Globalping's list of probes. Two probes on each network ask polymarket.com/api/geoblock, and one loaded the Kalshi homepage in the first run; from 10 November 2026 one checks the connection to Kalshi with a request for headers only. Countries are measured one after another to stay inside Globalping's public hourly limit.

Before anything is written, each run discards probe addresses, resolved addresses, headers, cookies and page bodies. What is kept is the network, city, status, outcome, the kind of failure and the check's own answer.

• Method of 3 November 2026: the run of 3 November 2026. SHA-256 18e1b6e0c742aa09
• Method for runs from 10 November 2026: no run yet. SHA-256 8d1e2de9704c8f71

Data and packs

Every run is sealed. Its pack holds one JSON file per country, a manifest with the SHA-256 of every file, a SHA256SUMS list with an RFC 3161 timestamp from FreeTSA, and the authority's certificates. A chain file links each run to the one before it.

To check a pack offline, recompute the hashes against SHA256SUMS, then run:

openssl ts -verify -in SHA256SUMS.tsr -data SHA256SUMS -CAfile tsa/cacert.pem -untrusted tsa/tsa.crt

Latest run, one file per country

DE FR ES IT NL BE PL DK CH PT RO CZ AT SE GB FI

Whole series

summary.csvchain.csvlatest.json

Method file, SHA-256

18e1b6e0c742aa09ae83064aef82969316dbcaef93629104d6084c4815a2ae68

Licence

CC BY 4.0 for the data and the packs. Reuse them freely, crediting Vultax Research.

Cite as

Vultax Research (2026). Do Europe's blocks hold? Weekly home-network measurement. Run of 3 November 2026, pack SHA-256 62ada8e0524a225eccff407cabf1d686ff1e5f43379a9680b90769f2170c411e. https://vultax.com/research/do-europes-blocks-hold. CC BY 4.0.