The independent research desk for prediction markets and crypto.
Studies, a public track record and live order books on Polymarket, Kalshi and the crypto exchanges.
- Studies, with their data37
- Regulators on the record9and counting
- Midterm contracts frozen before the vote13,186
- Polymarket traders, with their records80,000
Latest studies
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−72.0 ptsVinícius Júnior's fall on the 2024 ceremony dayBallon d'Or 2026 Odds: Kane 67% a Week Out, and the 89.5% Favourite Who Lost in 2024
Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won.
47.03%Flávio Bolsonaro, first roundBrazil Election 2026: Runoff Date, Polls, Odds and Results
Brazil votes again on 25 October. Follow the Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro runoff with dated polling, market odds and links to official TSE results.
77¢Flávio Bolsonaro, Polymarket Yes offerBrazil Election Polls vs Polymarket Odds: What the Numbers Mean
A 51% vote share and a 77¢ election contract answer different questions. A dated Brazil example explains polls, probabilities, spreads and uncertainty.
Latest reporting
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Malta’s MGA Sees ‘Significant Interest’ in Prediction Markets
The regulator told Vultax that some prediction-market products may fit existing betting licences. It declined to discuss individual companies or applications.
Germany's GGL Confirms Proceedings Against Polymarket and Kalshi
Germany's gambling regulator told Vultax that it opened administrative proceedings against both prediction markets and both responded. It says geographic restrictions are in place, while prohibition orders and payment blocks have not been necessary.
Czechia Blocks Kalshi: Internet Providers Have Until 15 October
The Czech Ministry of Finance entered kalshi.com on its list of unauthorised internet games on 30 September 2026, and internet providers must block it from 15 October at the latest. The ministry told Vultax on 2 October that it received no objection. polymarket.com has been listed since 13 July.
Explore the markets behind the research.
A live view of the Polymarket, Kalshi and crypto order books our studies measure. Open the full terminal for the paper desk, which uses no money.
Who it is for
Built for the people who write about, study, run and regulate these markets.
Work with us →The regulators, on the record.
9 of Europe's authorities are on the record with us about prediction markets, and counting. 5 published reports, below, are based on those written replies; the full country record keeps them all.
- MaltaMalta Gaming AuthoritySome prediction-market products may fit existing betting licences; individual applications remain confidential.
- GermanyGGLProceedings confirmed against Polymarket and Kalshi. Election bets cannot be licensed.
- SpainDGOJWhether Polymarket is blocked depends on your network. We measured it.
- CzechiaMinistry of Financekalshi.com is on the Czech blocklist. Providers block it from 15 October.
- LithuaniaGaming Control AuthorityPolymarket blocked, and other prediction markets now under review.
- The full recordEuropeEvery action by date and country, with its source — browsable, with a feed and a per-country brief.Browse the country recordFollow updatesRequest a brief
The charter. Open methods. Open data. No positions on any market we measure. Who paid for what, on the page.
Read the charterQuestions
How figures are computed is in the methodology. Anything else: contact.
- What is Vultax Research?
- A research body in Tallinn that measures prediction markets and crypto markets and publishes what it finds, with a terminal that shows the same markets live.
- How is it funded?
- Vultax is independently owned and self-funded. Our public studies and research tools are free to access. We welcome institutional enquiries about research, data and recurring measurements. Any future paid work will follow our published independence and disclosure rules.
- Does Vultax trade?
- No. We hold no positions on any market we measure. The terminal trades on paper only.
- Can I use the data?
- Yes, with a link to the study. Data we hold under licence is shown within that licence and says so.
